Goods trade growth set to moderate as barometer index dips

The overall barometer index (illustrated by the blue line in the chart below) fell to 101.8 for the month of September, down from 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index representing actual merchandise trade developments through Q2 (the black line).  The barometer, which typically predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, also remains above its baseline value of 100, which suggests that trade volume is likely to grow more slowly in the fourth quarter but remain above trend.

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so soon.

The barometer's component indices are all above their common baseline value of 100 except for the agricultural raw materials index (98.0), which has been in contraction since the start of the year. While still above trend, the indices for air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) have seen their values decline over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide. Meanwhile, the indices for automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) remained constant over the same period. 

The forward-looking new export orders index (102.3) surpassed the baseline value of 100 in the second quarter following some earlier volatility, pointing to sustained momentum in global exports. On balance, the indices point to a moderation in the pace of global trade growth.

Merchandise trade in the first half of 2025 recorded stronger than expected growth - up 4.9% year-on-year - but higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on growth in the second half. According to the WTO's most recent trade forecast of 7 October, trade volume growth in 2025 is expected to be around 2.4%, although there is considerable upside potential if demand for AI-related products remains strong. The next WTO trade forecast is scheduled for release in April 2026.

The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.

Further details on the methodology can be found in the technical note here.